Free agency in the NBA has come in with a major bang to this point, and we're less than a week in. This is one of my favorite times of the year because we as fans get to see how much money and how many years desperate teams are willing to throw on guys who are largely over-valued in exchange for the possibiliy of winning more games.
So far, some big names have changed addresses, and I'm going to lay down the facts and the BS about all of them.
Here we go.....
Jason Kidd signs a 3-year, $25 million deal to stay in Dallas.
FACT---Kidd makes the Mavericks better. People who toss around the idea that he's washed up don't know basketball, plain and simple. Yes, his stats have decilned in points and assists (the two main categories when judging his play), but he's still effective in running the offense and getting Dirk Nowitzki the ball where he wants it. That's more important than how many points Kidd scores or dimes he drops. He does exactly what Dallas needs him to do, so in that regard the signing makes sense. He'll probably have at least one more productive year, possibly two.
FICTION---If anyone thinks he'll give Dallas more than 1-2 good years, they're wrong. He's a great fit in Dallas, but he's still old. The Western Conference is backloaded with younger, quicker point guards. I can't imagine him lasting the full length of his contract.
Rasheed Wallace agrees to sign with Boston for the MLE.
FACT---This isn't a bad pickup for the Celtics, because they have no depth whatsoever and he's an instant upgrade over scrubs like Brian Scalabrine. He'll stretch the floor a little, score a little and occasionally rebound a little. He'll have some games where he hits three pointers like he's shooting the ball into the Atlantic Ocean. His contributions will be 100% off the bench, which may make him more effective in the long run.
FICTION---Rasheed Wallace puts the Celtics over the top in the Eastern Conference. This is completely laughable. At 34-years-old, 'Sheed isn't capable of impacting a team anymore the way he did in Portland and Detroit. He doesn't have the legs anymore, and he's way too complacent when it comes to shooting bad jump shots. Oftentimes, he'll camp out at the three-point line and just jack up shots for most of the game, not even thinking to get to the post. It's a shame, because he's a pretty solid post player when he wants to be. Also, it's total fiction that he won't have any outbursts because of the guys he'll now be playing with. He'll still pick up technical fouls, and he'll still make bad decisions in games, just like the rest of his career. Boston got a lot older with this signing, which isn't good in the East, with all the young, athletic teams. Do fans honestly think this signing makes Boston better than Orlando and Cleveland? If they do, I feel sorry for them. Healthy Kevin Garnett or no, this signing won't amount to what the Celtics hope it will. Boston's championship window has closed due to age.
Hedo Turkoglu to the Raptors for a lot of money.
FACT---This signing makes Toronto instantly playoff-caliber. The threesome of Turkoglu, Jose Calderon and Chris Bosh will be very tough for opposing teams to deal with. Hedo can run the floor, handle the ball and create his own shot. That makes him an awesome fit on this Raptors team.
FICTION---Signing Turkoglu makes Toronto a title contender. Hedo or not, the Raptors have no depth at really any position. They've already lost Anthony Parker and Shawn Marion to free agency and Jason Kapono to a trade, which severely hurts their efforts to not just make the playoffs, but be a higher seed. There's also a health question with Bosh. I can't remember one season in which Bosh played every game or almost every game. He's gotten hurt every year of his career. Add in the team's glaring lack of depth and they're still going to struggle at times next season. I expect them to make the playoffs, but it'll be one of the bottom three seeds.
Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva sign with Detroit for $50 million-plus and $35 million, respectively.
FACT---These two signings will make Detroit better than they were a year ago. The Pistons became so awful after trading Chauncey Billups to Denver that any improvement GM Joe Dumars makes will look good in the short term. Both guys will score their fair share of points and have breakout games where we all sit back and think that they're budding NBA superstars.
FICTION---Signing Gordon and Villanueva puts Detroit back into the East playoff picture again. Sorry, not buying this one. Gordon and Charlie V each have some pretty big flaws in their all-around games, and the Pistons don't have anyone outside of Rip Hamilton to count on on a consistent basis. Tayshaun Prince is one of the most overrated players in the NBA every year. Rodney Stuckey regressed mightily once Billups left and he was given the starting point guard role. Kwame Brown is still on the team. Jason Maxiell is grossly undersized for his post position. The team currently has no head coach and no true center outside of Brown, one of the worst players to ever be drafted in the first round of any pro sport. Aaron Aflalo isn't a starter in the NBA. Factor in that Hamilton wasn't happy coming off the bench last year with Allen Iverson, and he won't be happy splitting so much time with Gordon. Then, there's the new guys' flaws. Villanueva has a reputation of disappearing sometimes and not using his head during games. He'll take plays off and his shot isn't going to fall consistently every night. He's also not a strong defender. Gordon's only real NBA talent is shooting. Other than that, he's way undersized, doesn't play a lick of defense and wasn't very well liked in Chicago for having an awkward personality. The Pistons still have a ways to go before they're a contender again. I don't see these two signings truly helping them in the long term.
Vince Carter to the Magic for Courtney Lee, Rafer Alston and Tony Battie.
FACT---The trade gives Orlando another NBA superstar to add to its starting lineup. They now have gour near-guaranteed All-Stars on the court every night (health permitting) and will draw more excitement and attention from fans.
FICTION---This trade puts Orlando over the top. In my opinion, the Magic got worse with this deal. Vince Carter's reputaion as a malcontent who only tries when he feels like it preceeds him, and it will resurface again in Orlando. Carter is Carter. Playing for a title contender won't change what he's been his entire career. But how do fans expect to win a championship when Carter will expect to have the ball in his hands down the stretch of every game? Didn't Dwight Howard call out his coach during the playoffs because he wasn't getting enough touches? That happened with the unselfish rookie Lee as the team's starting shooting guard. What now? Get ready for big Dwight to be unhappy with his role again. Having VC also means the Magic will be worse defensively. Lee was very athletic and physical and could stay in front of most other 2s. Carter won't do that. Past knee injuries won't let him anyway. I've always said that no team with four All-Stars can win a title in the NBA because that's too many guys demanding too many shots. With three stars, it's possible, as long as they're mutually willing to pass up shots in order to play better. It happened in Boston two years ago. It will not happen in Orlando this year. Vince carter isn't the character guy Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen are. He just isn't. Also, getting Carter eliminates the only thing that made Orlando a nightmare to play--they're size. Hedo Turkoglu and Rashard Lewis were both 6-11 and could shoot the three. Vince Carter is a conventional 2, standing at about 6-6. With his decreasing quickness and tendency to settle for jump shots, he'll be an easy cover for more defensive-minded guards. Add in the Magics' lack of depth, and their fans will be kicking themselves in next year's playoffs when Boston or Cleveland knocks them out.
Trevor Ariza to Houston for the MLE.
FACT---Trevor Ariza is going to be a very good NBA player. What people fail to realize is that, no matter how a guy's shooting, he can always play defense, and that's exactly what Ariza does. As long as he sticks to that principle, he'll never be overrated or a waste of money. He's not as good as Ron Artest (yet), but he's only 24 and he's got a lot of time to improve all parts of his game, especially since the Rockets are going to be awful next season.
FICTION---Ariza is going to be a star in the NBA. Folks, he was good in the playoffs, and slightly above average during the regular season. He isn't the second coming of Scottie Pippen, as some have alleged. I do think he'll get better all-around, but he's not going to have the impact throughout his career that people mistakenly think he will. Think James Posey, but without the consistent jumper.
Ron Artest signs with the L.A. Lakers for the MLE.
FACT---Artest gives the Lakers even more credibility as the NBA's elite team right now. We know what to expect out of Artest during games. He's going to score between 15-18 points a night. He's also going to play outstanding man-to-man defense. He gives his new team even more star power. Right now, the Lakers, on paper, have the best team in the NBA.
FICTION---Artest to L.A. will work. Two words: Kobe Bryant. If you think Ron Artest and Kobe can get along for a full season, think again. Artest has never truly gotten along with a second alpha dog on any of the teams he's played for. He didn't work well with his teammates in Indiana. He didn't initially get along with Yao Ming in Houston, and he never really got along with Tracy McGrady. The only times he's been truly effective were in Indiana when Jermaine O'Neal and Reggie Miller were out of action or in Sacramento, where Kevin Martin was the only other good player, and he was still very young and on the rise. Artest always backs himself into the corner of having to be the top guy, even though he really doesn't have top guy talent. That's where his relationship with Kobe will sour. Bryant is famous for avoiding passing to open teammates in favor of jacking up bad contested shots. Will Artest be okay with that? I doubt it. And how will this affect guys who already don't get enough touches because of Kobe, like Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum? My guess is negatively. Artest cannot coexist on a team like this. He just can't. Don't be surprised if this backfires in some way. There are a lot of teams out there Artest would've fit with better.
Shaquille O'Neal to Cleveland in a trade with Phoenix for Ben Wallace and Sasha Pavlovic.
FACT---No matter what stage of Oneal's career it is, this trade makes the Cavaliers better than they were last season. The simple reason for this is the fact they gave up absolutely nothing to bring the big guy in. Ben Wallace's best days were well behind him and Pavlovic hasn't really ever had any best days in his seven-year playing career. All Shaq has to do to replace both guys himself is average something in the neighborhood of 10 points and five rebounds a game, and he'll instantly exceed the combined production of both guys he replaced. That's really all he has to do. For that reason alone, it was a fantastic trade for Danny Ferry and the Cavs. People have tended to make too much out of Shaq being 37 and on the downside of his career. That's true, and he's not going to come in and play like the Shaq of 2000, but he really doesn't have to. He doesn't even have to come close. If nothing else, it's addition by subtraction for the Cavs. Then factor in his name recognition and all the extra coverage Cleveland will get because of him. The Cavs haven't traded for a player with Shaq's on-court resume since Shawn Kemp in 1996. And there's no way O'Neal will be worse than Kemp was. He'll do wonders for the team's confidence and make everybody better. And he'll give LeBron James another toy to play with. Expect James' per game numbers to go up next year, as hard as that can be to fathom.
FICTION---Getting Shaq puts Cleveland over the top. It definitely doesn't, and in my mind, still doesn't make them favorites to win the East. The Cavs dodged a bullet with Orlando foolishly trading Courtney Lee and letting Hedo Turkoglu walk, but they still need to make one or two more moves (trades or free agency) to make them the East's best team. And remember, just because the team hasn't signed a big name free agent, it isn't the end of the world. The Cavs are going to be very good again next year, and they have until the February trade deadline to make their big splash. They will do something significant, but it might not be right away. This is still a very good, contending team without another big move. that's why the Shaq trade is so exciting. Cleveland's definitely better, but not all the way better. Yet.
So there you have it. As more signings happen, I'll add updates to this post. But for now, those are the big names. Sign/trade at your own risk, NBA front offices.
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